Open Access

ARTICLE

Potentially Suitable Area and Change Trends of Tulipa iliensis under Climate Change

Douwen Qin^1,2, Weiqiang Liu^1,2, Jiting Tian^1,2, Xiuting Ju^1,2,*

1 College of Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, Qinghai University, Xining, 810016, China
2 Key Laboratory of Qinghai Province for Landscape Plants Research, Plateau Flower Research Centre, Qinghai University, Xining, 810016, China

* Corresponding Author: Xiuting Ju. Email:

(This article belongs to the Special Issue: Ecology, Diversity and Conservation of Rare and Endangered Plant Species)

Phyton-International Journal of Experimental Botany 2024, 93(5), 981-1005. https://doi.org/10.32604/phyton.2024.049668

Received 13 January 2024; Accepted 08 April 2024; Issue published 28 May 2024

Abstract

Tulipa iliensis, as a wild plant resource, possesses high ornamental value and can provide abundant parental materials for tulip breeding. The objective of this research was to forecast the worldwide geographical spread of Tulipa iliensis by considering bioclimatic, soil, and topographic variables, the findings of this research can act as a benchmark for the conservation, management, and utilization of Tulipa iliensis as a wild plant resource. Research results indicate that all 12 models have an area under curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) values greater than 0.968 for the paleoclimatic, current, and future climate scenarios, this suggests an exceptionally high level of predictive accuracy for the models. The distribution of Tulipa iliensis is influenced by several key factors. These factors include the mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9), calcium carbonate content (T_CACO), slope, precipitation of the driest month (Bio14), Basic saturation (T_BS), and precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19). During the three paleoclimate climate scenarios, the appropriate habitats for Tulipa iliensis showed a pattern of expansion-contraction expansion. Furthermore, the total suitable area accounted for 13.38%, 12.28%, and 13.28% of the mainland area, respectively. According to the current climate scenario, the High-suitability area covers 61.78472 × 10 km, which accounts for 6.57% of the total suitable area, The Mid-suitability area covers 190.0938 × 10 km, accounting for 20.2% of the total suitable area, this represents a decrease of 63.53%~67.13% compared to the suitable area of Tulipa iliensis under the paleoclimate scenario. Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios, in 2050 and 2090, Tulipa iliensis is projected to experience a decrease in the High, Mid, and Low-suitability areas under the SSP126 climate scenario by 7.10%~12.96%, 2.96%~4.27% and 4.80%~7.96%, respectively. According to the SSP245 scenario, the high suitability area experienced a slight expansion of 2.26% in 2050, but a reduction of 6.32% in 2090. In the SSP370 scenario, the High-suitability areas had a larger reduction rate of 11.24% in 2050, while the Mid-suitability and Low-suitability areas had smaller expansion rates of 0.36% and 4.86%, respectively. In 2090, the High-suitability area decreased by 4.84%, while the Mid and Low-suitability areas experienced significant expansions of 15.73% and 45.89%, respectively. According to the SSP585 scenario, in the future, the High, Mid, and Low-suitability areas are projected to increase by 5.09%~7.21%, 7.57%~17.66%, and 12.30%~48.98%, respectively. The research offers enhanced theoretical direction for preserving Tulipa iliensis’ genetic variety amidst evolving climatic scenarios.

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Keywords

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