Open Access

ARTICLE

Multi-Stage Intelligent Smart Lockdown using SIR Model to Control COVID 19

Abdul Ghaffar¹, Saad Alanazi², Madallah Alruwaili², Mian Usman Sattar³, Waqas Ali⁴, Memoona Humayun², Shahan Yamin Siddiqui^5,6, Fahad Ahmad⁷, Muhammad Adnan Khan^8,*

1 Department of Information System, University of Management and Technology, Lahore, Pakistan
2 College of Computer and Information Sciences, Jouf University, Sakaka, 72341, Saudi Arabia
3 School of Business, Beaconhouse National University, Lahore, Pakistan
4 Department of Computer Science, University of Management and Technology, Lahore, Pakistan
5 School of Computer Science, Minhaj University Lahore, Lahore, 54000, Pakistan
6 School of Computer Science, National College of Business Administration and Economics, Lahore, 54000, Pakistan
7 Department of Basic Sciences, Deanship of Common First Year, Jouf University, Sakaka, 72341, Saudi Arabia
8 Riphah School of Computing & Innovation, Faculty of Computing, Riphah International University, Lahore Campus, Lahore, 54000, Pakistan

* Corresponding Author: Muhammad Adnan Khan. Email:

Intelligent Automation & Soft Computing 2021, 28(2), 429-445. https://doi.org/10.32604/iasc.2021.014685

Received 08 October 2020; Accepted 24 February 2021; Issue published 01 April 2021

Abstract

Corona Virus (COVID-19) is a contagious disease. Unless an effective vaccine is available, various techniques such as lockdown, social distancing, or business Standard operating procedures (SOPs) must be implemented. Lockdown is an effective technique for controlling the spread of the virus, but it severely affects the economy of developing countries. No single technique for controlling a pandemic situation has ever returned a promising result; therefore, using a combination of techniques would be best for controlling COVID-19. The South asian association of regional corporation (SAARC), region contains populous and developing countries that have a unique social-cultural lifestyle that entails a higher rate of contact and R₀. The per-capita income and economic conditions of these countries are dismal in comparison with those of advanced countries. With no lockdown policy, their healthcare systems would be unable to provide support. In this study, an intelligent smart lockdown strategy is proposed, which is dynamically implemented with the Susceptible, infectious, or recovered (SIR) model by calculating the R₀ value after a certain number of days to implement multi-stage lockdowns with social distancing and SOPs for conducting business. Only 4.28% of the population of SAARC countries would be affected by COVID-19 after July 22, 2021 under the proposed strategy. Nearly 38% of the population would be affected after March 8, 2021 without lockdowns, whereas 18% of the population would be affected according to the simple SIR model after May 30, 2021. Furthermore, less than 1% of the population would be affected after April 13, 2021 under full lockdown and recession. Thus, the proposed strategy shows promising long-term results for controlling COVID-19 without negatively affecting the economy.

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