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Fully Completed Spherical Fuzzy Approach-Based Z Numbers (PHI Model) for Enhanced Group Expert Consensus
Research Center of Applied Sciences, Faculty of Business, FPT University, Hanoi, 100000, Vietnam
* Corresponding Author: Phi-Hung Nguyen. Email:
(This article belongs to the Special Issue: Emerging Trends in Fuzzy Logic)
Computers, Materials & Continua 2024, 80(1), 1655-1675. https://doi.org/10.32604/cmc.2024.050713
Received 15 February 2024; Accepted 14 June 2024; Issue published 18 July 2024
Abstract
This study aims to establish an expert consensus and enhance the efficacy of decision-making processes by integrating Spherical Fuzzy Sets (SFSs) and Z-Numbers (SFZs). A novel group expert consensus technique, the PHI model, is developed to address the inherent limitations of both SFSs and the traditional Delphi technique, particularly in uncertain, complex scenarios. In such contexts, the accuracy of expert knowledge and the confidence in their judgments are pivotal considerations. This study provides the fundamental operational principles and aggregation operators associated with SFSs and Z-numbers, encompassing weighted geometric and arithmetic operators alongside fully developed operators tailored for SFZs numbers. Subsequently, a case study and comparative analysis are conducted to illustrate the practicality and effectiveness of the proposed operators and methodologies. Integrating the PHI model with SFZs numbers represents a significant advancement in decision-making frameworks reliant on expert input. Further, this combination serves as a comprehensive tool for decision-makers, enabling them to achieve heightened levels of consensus while concurrently assessing the reliability of expert contributions. The case study results demonstrate the PHI model’s utility in resolving complex decision-making scenarios, showcasing its ability to improve consensus-building processes and enhance decision outcomes. Additionally, the comparative analysis highlights the superiority of the integrated approach over traditional methodologies, underscoring its potential to revolutionize decision-making practices in uncertain environments.Keywords
Recently, numerous scholars have focused on studying the representation of uncertain information, and one notable approach is the utilization of fuzzy set theory, which employs membership degrees (MD) to capture uncertainty. Many extended models have been developed based on classic fuzzy sets. Zadeh [1] introduced the idea of Fuzzy Sets (FSs) in 1965. The concept of FS is to use an MD
While q-ROF offers notable advantages, researchers may encounter challenges when assessing information. In numerous real-life scenarios, MD and NMD may fall short in accurately expressing information, often due to instances of abstention and refusal, similar to situations encountered in voting or collecting human opinions. Cuong et al. [11] proposed the Picture Fuzzy Sets (PFSs) to overcome these problems with four degrees, i.e., MD, NMD, an abstinence degree (AD), and refusal degree (RD), with the condition
Drawing upon an extensive literature review, this study highlights a significant gap in the current decision-making methodologies, particularly in MCDM. The intrinsic challenge lies in the imperfect nature of available information, characterized by its ambiguity, unreliability, and partiality [18]. While conventional fuzzy numbers offer a mechanism for grappling with uncertainty, they often overlook the crucial aspect of certainty within the data [19]. Addressing this shortfall, Z-numbers emerge as a promising avenue, providing a more nuanced portrayal of incomplete information [20]. These Z-numbers, represented as Z (A, R), encapsulate two critical components: A, denoting the variable limitation, and R, signifying the reliability degree. This conceptualization presents a more profound and adaptable framework for formalizing the intricacies of decision-making processes [21]. As interpreted by Nguyen et al. [22], the Z number generalizes real, interval, random, and fuzzy numbers, thus offering a heightened level of effectiveness in modeling real-world systems. The versatility of Z-number theory extends to its ability to accurately encapsulate incomplete information in a manner akin to natural language expressions [20]. However, the prevailing Delphi method, whether traditional or spherical fuzzy, often falters in adequately factoring in the reliability of expert opinions, thereby jeopardizing the integrity of analysis outcomes. For instance, Mohandes et al. [23] constructed a Pentagonal Fuzzy Delphi Method (PFDM) to determine possible causes of associated accidents on building sites. Similarly, Nguyen’s work utilized the SF-Delphi technique to establish expert consensus on the criteria governing employee satisfaction in the logistics service sector. [24], as well as to validates critical criteria influencing Vietnamese customers’ apartment selection [25].
Nevertheless, both traditional Delphi and SF-Delphi models ignore the inherent uncertainty surrounding expert opinions, which can significantly sway analysis results and influence [22]. Therefore, the primary objective of this study is to lay the groundwork for the pioneering spherical fuzzy Z-number model. This model showcases exceptional adeptness in articulating ambiguous information, thus serving as a valuable tool for informed decision-making amidst uncertainty. Notably, it not only enhances the precision of decision-making data but also embodies qualities of fuzziness, flexibility, and applicability, as evidenced in Table 1. Furthermore, this research introduces the PHI model, founded on fully developed Z-SF laws, and presents it through two distinct approaches: the PHI-based SF approach and the PHI-based Z-numbers approach. Finally, to validate the efficacy of the new model, the study applies it to identify critical barriers to adopting logistics supply chain management (SCM) simulation software within Vietnamese universities.
Following this, this study’s objective addresses two key questions: (RQ1) Does the new PHI method capture vague and uncertain information better than the previous group expert consensus techniques? (RQ2) Applying the new PHI method, what are the crucial barriers to adopting logistics SCM simulation software in universities in Vietnam?
This research pioneers the fully integrated use of Z-SF numbers within the Delphi approach by leveraging Z-numbers for information gathering and employing calculations based on SFSs. Initially, experts’ assessments of criteria importance and evaluation reliability are collected simultaneously using a language scale. Subsequently, various aggregation approaches are applied to identify essential criteria influencing the research problem. Finally, correlations are employed to compare the PHI method based on the Spherical Fuzzy approach and the Z-SF Delphi method based on the Z-numbers approach with other techniques. The significant contributions of this study can be summarized as follows:
(i) This research introduces a novel method that surpasses previous Delphi approaches by integrating the advantages of SFSs and Z-numbers. Unlike prior methods [22,25], this new approach not only adeptly handles the ambiguity and uncertainty of information using SFSs but also accounts for the information’s reliability level.
(ii) The proposed combined approach enhances established techniques, analytical precision, and decision-making abilities when investigating MCDM problems. Scholars and policymakers can utilize the two suggested approaches to the new method as a guide when applying them to various study areas, thus advancing the field’s analytical capabilities and decision-making efficacy.
2 Preliminaries and Basic Theory
This section introduces several fundamental definitions and operations that played a crucial role in shaping the suggested work.
Definition 1 [1]: Suppose F is the universal set, then the fuzzy set is defined as:
where
Definition 2 [27]: A Z-number is an ordered pair of fuzzy numbers
Definition 3 [22]: By applying the concept of fuzzy expected value, the Z-number can be converted to a fuzzy number:
First, the Z-number (R) is transformed into a numerical value as the following geometrical:
The computed weight
Then, the obtained fuzzy number
Definition 4 [14]: Let F be the universal set; the spherical fuzzy set is defined as follows:
where
Definition 5 [21]: Let
where
Definition 6 [21]: Suppose
Union
Intersection
Addition
Multiplication
Multiplication by a scalar;
Power of
Definition 7 [21]: Spherical fuzzy Z-number weighted arithmetic (SFZNWA) with respect to
Definition 8 [21]: Spherical fuzzy Z-number weighted geometric (SFZNWG) with respect to
Definition 9 [14]: SFZNs are transformed into Spherical fuzzy numbers
3 Proposed Model of PHI Model-Based SFZNs
The expert’s evaluations can be displayed as Z-numbers, indicating the boundary’s certainty and value for the required problem. With the combination of SFZNs, the author gathered the experts’ views of the concerned topic and the reliability level of their rate using the linguistic scales in Tables 2 and 3.
Step 1: Experts
where the
Step 2: The SFZNWA Eq. (11) or SFZNWG operator Eq. (12) is used to obtain the significance level of each indicator, which is displayed in Eq. (15):
Step 3: Transform SFZNs into SFSs numbers using Eqs. (13) and (16).
Step 4: Transforming SFSs numbers into crisp numbers by using Eq. (17):
Step 5: Calculate the threshold by Eq. (18) and validate the criteria.
If
3.2 PHI-Based Z-Number Approach
Step 1: This step is the same as Step 1 of the PHI-Based SFSs Approach.
Step 2: The Z-numbers are converted into SFSs numbers by Eqs. (2)–(4). The resulting fuzzy numbers take the following form:
Step 3: Eq. (16) presents the SFZ decision matrix.
Step 4: The utilization of either the SFZNWA Eq. (11) or the SFZNWG operator Eq. (12) is applied to determine the significance level of the criterion, as illustrated in Eq. (20):
Step 5: Transforming Spherical fuzzy numbers into crisp numbers by using Eq. (17).
Step 6: Calculate the threshold by Eq. (18) and validate the criteria. If
Adopting logistics Supply Chain Management (SCM) simulation software in Vietnamese universities has encountered various barriers, hindering its widespread implementation. Many universities in Vietnam may not fully comprehend how these software solutions can enhance the learning experience for students in logistics and supply chain management programs. Financial constraints pose a significant challenge, as investing in advanced simulation software requires a substantial upfront cost. Moreover, there is a shortage of skilled professionals who can effectively integrate and utilize SCM simulation software in educational settings. Overcoming these barriers will necessitate targeted efforts to raise awareness, secure funding, and provide adequate training to educators, thereby fostering a conducive environment for integrating logistics SCM simulation software in Vietnamese universities. Through a comprehensive literature review, Table 4 highlights various challenges organizations face when trying to adopt simulation software, such as EPR (Enterprise Resource Planning) or logistics Supply Chain Management.
A questionnaire comprising 20 barriers associated with adopting the logistic SCM simulation platform was distributed to 13 experts within the educational domain. Responses were received from 10 experts, and Table 5 provides an overview of their demographics.
Based on the information provided in Table 5, it can be affirmed that the selected experts possess diverse experiences, educational backgrounds, and professional positions within the educational domain. This diversity contributes to a well-rounded and comprehensive evaluation of the barriers to adopting the logistic SCM simulation platform. The linguistic evaluations and weights assigned by each expert further underscore the suitability of this expert panel in offering valuable insights for this study.
4.1.1 Results of PHI-Based SFSs Approach
After collecting experts’ evaluations, the author transforms this information into SFZNs numbers based on Tables 2 and 3. The SFZNWA–Eqs. (11) and (15) are used to obtain the significance vector for each barrier. The SFZN significance vectors are transformed into SFSs numbers by Eq. (16), and SFSs numbers are continually transformed into crisp numbers using Eq. (17). Finally, the threshold is calculated by Eq. (18) to validate the barriers. The results are displayed in Table 6. Similarly, the SFZNWG results are shown in Table 7.
The Spearman correlation (Eq. (21)) is applied to investigate the relationship between two operators, SFZNWA and SFZNWG,
4.1.2 Results of PHI-Based Z-Numbers Approach
Unlike SFZN-Delphi, using the SFs approach, the reliability components were presented through Eq. (19) after collecting expert evaluation. Then, the author took the square of
The Spearman correlation in Eq. (21) is applied to investigate the relationship between two operators, SFZNWA and SFZNWG,
To investigate the appropriateness of the newly proposed methods, the author used three spherical Z-number approaches proposed by Alkan et al. [28] to assess the relationships between various Delphi techniques.
4.2.1 The First Is Named SFZN-Delphi, and It Has Defuzzified Restriction and Reliability Functions
First, after collecting expert evaluations, we defuzzify the reliability components in each pairwise comparison matrix using Eq. (22) and normalize the obtained values using Eq. (23). Then, we multiply the SF restriction values in each pairwise comparison matrix by the square root of the normalized reliability values using Eq. (24). Third, Eqs. (11) or (12) is used to aggregate the values in pairwise comparison matrices obtained in the previous step. Finally, the score function is found using Eq. (22) and compared with the threshold by Eq. (18) to validate the criteria.
4.2.2 The Second Was Named SFZN-Delphi with Aggregated and Defuzzified Reliability Function
First, the components in each pairwise comparison matrix are aggregated and defuzzified using Eqs. (11) or (12) and (22), respectively, and normalize the obtained values using Eq. (23). Secondly, we multiply the aggregated restriction vector by the square root of the normalized reliability values using Eq. (24). Finally, the score function is found using Eq. (22) and compared with the threshold by Eq. (18) to validate the criteria.
4.2.3 The Third Is Named Fully Completed PHI-Based SFZNs Models
Firstly, we compute the square root of each SF number in the reliability matrix. Then, we multiply the SF restriction values in pairwise comparison matrices by the values obtained before using Eq. (25). Similarly to the previous methods, the score function is found using Eq. (22) and compared with the threshold using Eq. (18) to validate the criteria.
The results of the three approaches for using SWAM and SWGM operators are presented in Tables 10 and 11, respectively. The results show that, from the perspective of the SWAM operator, the first and second approaches have 14 appropriate and six inappropriate barriers (C2, C3, C4, C6, C18 and C20). The third approach has 15 appropriate and five unacceptable barriers (C2, C4, C6, C18, and C20). The results of the third approach are consistent with those of the SFZN-Delphi approach. In SWGM, the three approaches have 15 appropriate and five inappropriate barriers (C2, C4, C6, C18, and C20).
Figs. 1 and 2 compare the results obtained using these three methods. The comparison reveals that the value of the crisp numbers of these barriers is similar across the approaches. However, there are some slight differences in the ranking of these barriers. Specifically, the ranking of the SWAM operator is more stable than that of the SWGM operator.
To comprehensively understand comparative analysis, we used the Spearman correlation to compare the ranking of five approaches. Table 12 presents the correlation of the PHI-Based SFSs Approach with the other approaches, and Table 13 demonstrates the correlation of SFZN-Delphi Using the Z-numbers Approach with the different approaches. The results show that all correlation values above 0.7 indicate a strong relationship among the five approaches. The smallest correlation value of the PHI-Based SFSs Approach with the other approaches is 0.867 and 0.819 with the PHI-Based Z-numbers Approach with the different approaches.
This study combined the advantages of the Spherical Fuzzy Sets and Z-Numbers to develop the new PHI model with two approaches. Based on the results in Section 4.2, the SFS approach indicated 15 appropriate and five rejected barriers in both SWAM and SWGM ways. However, the Z-numbers approach revealed 13 appropriate barriers, seven left barriers in SWAM, and only 12 appropriate barriers and eight rejected barriers to adopting logistics SCM simulation software in Vietnamese universities. The PHI-based Z-numbers approach utilized Kang et al. [29] methodology, which involves converting a Z-number into a fuzzy number. This method is advantageous due to its easy computational and analytic complexity, which permits a broad scope of application. Unfortunately, when Z-numbers are converted to imprecise numbers, a substantial amount of original information is lost, which diminishes the utility of Z-number-based details in its initial situation [30,31]. Therefore, the SFZN-Delphi using the Z-numbers app PHI-based Z-numbers approach roach eliminates more factors than the other method.
In contrast, the PHI-based SFSs approach completely applies the properties of Spherical Fuzzy Sets. Therefore, this method is more complicated than the PHI-based Z-numbers approach due to their equations and operators. In this approach, the researcher utilizes more time and assets to address the MCDM challenges. However, as previously declared regarding the advantages of SFS in Section 1, this method will provide an expanded outcome compared to the app PHI-based Z-numbers approach with a typical spherical observation angle. The data will be thoroughly analyzed to maximize the quality of the information obtained. Depending on the resources and research purposes, researchers can apply appropriate approaches.
Compared with Alkan’s methods, the PHI-based SFSs approach has results similar to all three. The similarities between all four methods can be explained by their reliance on the SFS formula. At the same time, their results provide additional evidence to eliminate 5 barriers unsuitable for adopting the logistics SCM simulation software in universities in Vietnam. A set of 15 barriers is confirmed to be the most critical barrier to preventing the process of adopting the logistics SCM simulation software in universities in Vietnam. Each barrier represents a significant obstacle that must be carefully addressed to facilitate successful adoption and integration. High upfront costs (C1) emerge as a prominent barrier, highlighting the financial strain associated with implementing such software solutions. Integration challenges (C3) further complicate matters, indicating the difficulty in seamlessly integrating the software with existing systems and processes. Complexity (C5) underscores the ins and outs involved in navigating and utilizing the software effectively, while data security concerns (C7) raise valid apprehensions regarding protecting sensitive information. Theoretical results (C8) signify a gap between theoretical understanding and practical application, suggesting enhanced training and support mechanisms are needed. Long sales cycles (C9) and implementation time (C10) reflect the prolonged and resource-intensive nature of the adoption process, posing logistical challenges for universities. Computational power (C11) emerges as a critical consideration, highlighting the necessity of robust infrastructure to support the software’s functionalities. The lack of industry-specific templates (C12) further exacerbates implementation challenges, necessitating customized solutions tailored to the unique needs of the education sector. The inability to adapt to business changes (C13) underscores the importance of software flexibility and scalability, while opportunity cost (C14) underscores the trade-offs associated with investment in the software. Uncertain ROI (C15) raises doubts regarding the software’s potential benefits, emphasizing the need for clear and quantifiable outcomes. The lack of trust (C16) and resistance to change (C17) represent psychological barriers that must be addressed through effective communication and stakeholder engagement. Customization complexity (C19) and automation concerns (C20) highlight technical challenges that must be navigated to ensure smooth adoption and utilization.
5 Conclusions, Implications, Limitations, and Future Research
The intricacies of information inherently challenge the decision-making process, encompassing complexity, vagueness, and uncertainty. This study represents a pioneering effort in considering the PHI method from dual perspectives, incorporating its restriction and reliability components. Through the presentation of two distinct approaches—the PHI-based SFSs approach and the PHI-based Z-numbers approach—the author adeptly delineates each methodology’s primary advantages and limitations. Furthermore, a comprehensive comparative analysis is conducted against three alternative approaches proposed by Alkan et al. [28], underscoring their appropriateness within the context of the study. The outcomes of this comparison reveal noteworthy insights. The SFZN-Delphi, using the Z-numbers approach, encounters 13 barriers when applying SWAM operators and 12 obstacles with SWGM operators, constituting 20 identified barriers in total. Conversely, the PHI-based SFSs approach, integrating both SWAM and SWGM operators, identifies 15 barriers, aligning closely with the proposed research framework. Notably, these findings parallel those observed in SFZN-Delphi with Defuzzified Restriction and Reliability Functions (SWGM operator), SFZN-Delphi with Aggregated and Defuzzified Reliability Function (SWGM operator), and Fully Completed PHI-based SFZNs models across both operator scenarios. This nuanced analysis contributes significantly to understanding decision-making methodologies, offering valuable insights for future research and practical applications.
The study’s implications are far-reaching, offering valuable insights into enhancing decision-making processes by introducing a new method based on SFSs and Z-numbers. By comparing these approaches with existing methods, the study suggests they can improve decision quality, providing decision-makers with additional tools to navigate complexity, vagueness, and uncertainty. Beyond conventional domains, the interdisciplinary applications of these methodologies span a multitude of fields, including economics, engineering, healthcare, and environmental management. Organizations stand to benefit immensely from leveraging these findings to optimize their strategic decision-making processes, thereby gaining a competitive edge in volatile business environments. Moreover, policymakers can harness the power of advanced decision methodologies to inform policy frameworks, effectively addressing complex societal challenges and enhancing public governance structures. Educational endeavors are crucial in disseminating knowledge and fostering proficiency in applying SFSs and Z-numbers, ensuring their practical utilization in real-world decision-making scenarios.
5.3 Limitations and Future Research
While this study offers significant insights, it is essential to acknowledge its limitations, which should be addressed in future research endeavors. Firstly, the study’s exclusive focus on comparing two new PHI methods based on SFSs and Z-numbers may limit its broader applicability by potentially overlooking other relevant decision-making methodologies. Moreover, methodological biases in selecting and implementing comparison methods could impact the efficacy of the proposed approaches. Additionally, the quality and quantity of available data for analysis may influence the validity of the conclusions, emphasizing the necessity for robust data collection and analysis techniques in future studies. Furthermore, the generalizability of the findings might be constrained by the specific context or domain in which they were tested. To mitigate these limitations, future research avenues could explore the integration of SFSs and Z-numbers with other MCDM methods such as DEMATEL, VIKOR, and TOPSIS. Furthermore, applying the proposed approaches to diverse decision-making problems across various industries and domains could enhance their applicability and effectiveness. Refinement of the methodologies to address inherent limitations and biases is also crucial for improving their efficacy. Longitudinal studies could be conducted to assess the long-term impacts of implementing these methodologies in real-world scenarios. Lastly, involving stakeholders in the development and validation process of these methodologies could provide valuable insights and ensure their practical relevance and acceptance.
Acknowledgement: The author appreciates Thu-Hien Tran from the National Taipei University of Technology, Taiwan, for her hard work and support.
Funding Statement: The author received no specific funding for this study.
Availability of Data and Materials: The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author, Phi-Hung Nguyen, upon reasonable request.
Conflicts of Interest: The author declares that there are no conflicts of interest related to this study.
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