Open Access

ARTICLE

Epidemiological Analysis of the Coronavirus Disease Outbreak with Random Effects

by Muhammad Farman¹, Aqeel Ahmad¹, Ali Akgül^2,*, Muhammad Umer Saleem³, Muhammad Naeem⁴, Dumitru Baleanu^5,6,7

1 Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Lahore, Pakistan
2 Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Art and Science, Siirt University, Siirt, 56100, Turkey
3 Department of Mathematics, University of Education, Lahore, Pakistan
4 Department of Economics and Business Administration, University of Education, Lahore, Pakistan
5 Department of Mathematics, Cankaya University, Balgat, 06530, Turkey
6 Institute of Space Sciences, Magurele-Bucharest, R76900, Romania
7 Department of Medical Research, China Medical University, Taichung,40402, Taiwan

* Corresponding Author: Ali Akgül. Email:

(This article belongs to the Special Issue: Mathematical aspects of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Analysis and Control)

Computers, Materials & Continua 2021, 67(3), 3215-3227. https://doi.org/10.32604/cmc.2021.014006

Received 30 August 2020; Accepted 07 January 2021; Issue published 01 March 2021

Abstract

Today, coronavirus appears as a serious challenge to the whole world. Epidemiological data of coronavirus is collected through media and web sources for the purpose of analysis. New data on COVID-19 are available daily, yet information about the biological aspects of SARS-CoV-2 and epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 remains limited, and uncertainty remains around nearly all its parameters’ values. This research provides the scientific and public health communities better resources, knowledge, and tools to improve their ability to control the infectious diseases. Using the publicly available data on the ongoing pandemic, the present study investigates the incubation period and other time intervals that govern the epidemiological dynamics of the COVID-19 infections. Formulation of the testing hypotheses for different countries with a 95% level of confidence, and descriptive statistics have been calculated to analyze in which region will COVID-19 fall according to the tested hypothesized mean of different countries. The results will be helpful in decision making as well as in further mathematical analysis and control strategy. Statistical tools are used to investigate this pandemic, which will be useful for further research. The testing of the hypothesis is done for the differences in various effects including standard errors. Changes in states’ variables are observed over time. The rapid outbreak of coronavirus can be stopped by reducing its transmission. Susceptible should maintain safe distance and follow precautionary measures regarding COVID-19 transmission.

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