Open Access

ARTICLE

Qualitative Analysis of a Fractional Pandemic Spread Model of the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Ali Yousef^1,*, Fatma Bozkurt^1,2, Thabet Abdeljawad^3,4,5

1 Department of Mathematics, Kuwait College of Science and Technology, 27235, Kuwait
2 Department of Mathematics, Erciyes University, Kayseri, 38039, Turkey
3 Department of Mathematics and General Sciences, Prince Sultan University, Riyadh, 11586, Saudi Arabia
4 Department of Medical Research, China Medical University, Taichung, 40402, Taiwan
5 Department of Computer Science and Information Engineering, Asia University, Taichung, Taiwan

* Corresponding Author: Ali Yousef. Email:

(This article belongs to the Special Issue: Mathematical aspects of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Analysis and Control)

Computers, Materials & Continua 2021, 66(1), 843-869. https://doi.org/10.32604/cmc.2020.012060

Received 12 June 2020; Accepted 03 September 2020; Issue published 30 October 2020

Abstract

In this study, we classify the genera of COVID-19 and provide brief information about the root of the spread and the transmission from animal (natural host) to humans. We establish a model of fractional-order differential equations to discuss the spread of the infection from the natural host to the intermediate one, and from the intermediate one to the human host. At the same time, we focus on the potential spillover of bat-borne coronaviruses. We consider the local stability of the co-existing critical point of the model by using the Routh–Hurwitz Criteria. Moreover, we analyze the existence and uniqueness of the constructed initial value problem. We focus on the control parameters to decrease the outbreak from pandemic form to the epidemic by using both strong and weak Allee Effect at time t. Furthermore, the discretization process shows that the system undergoes Neimark–Sacker Bifurcation under specific conditions. Finally, we conduct a series of numerical simulations to enhance the theoretical findings.

---

Keywords

---

Citations