Open Access

ARTICLE

Fractional Order Modeling of Predicting COVID-19 with Isolation and Vaccination Strategies in Morocco

by Lakhlifa Sadek¹, Otmane Sadek¹, Hamad Talibi Alaoui², Mohammed S. Abdo³, Kamal Shah^4,5, Thabet Abdeljawad^4,6,*

1 Laboratory of Engineering Sciences for Energy, National School of Applied Sciences, Chouaib Doukkali University, El Jadida, 10002, Morocco
2 Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Sciences, Chouaib Doukkali University, El Jadida, 10002, Morocco
3 Department of Mathematics, Hodeidah University, Al-Hudaydah, 91911, Yemen
4 Department of Mathematics and Sciences, Prince Sultan University, Riyadh, 11586, Saudi Arabia
5 Department of Mathematics, University of Malakand, Chakdara Dir (L), Khyber Pakhtankhawa, 18000, Pakistan
6 Department of Medical Research, China Medical University, Taichung, 40402, Taiwan

* Corresponding Author: Thabet Abdeljawad. Email:

(This article belongs to the Special Issue: Applications of Fractional Operators in Modeling Real-world Problems: Theory, Computation, and Applications)

Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences 2023, 136(2), 1931-1950. https://doi.org/10.32604/cmes.2023.025033

Received 28 April 2022; Accepted 16 August 2022; Issue published 06 February 2023

Abstract

In this work, we present a model that uses the fractional order Caputo derivative for the novel Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) with different hospitalization strategies for severe and mild cases and incorporate an awareness program. We generalize the SEIR model of the spread of COVID-19 with a private focus on the transmissibility of people who are aware of the disease and follow preventative health measures and people who are ignorant of the disease and do not follow preventive health measures. Moreover, individuals with severe, mild symptoms and asymptomatically infected are also considered. The basic reproduction number () and local stability of the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) in terms of are investigated. Also, the uniqueness and existence of the solution are studied. Numerical simulations are performed by using some real values of parameters. Furthermore, the immunization of a sample of aware susceptible individuals in the proposed model to forecast the effect of the vaccination is also considered. Also, an investigation of the effect of public awareness on transmission dynamics is one of our aim in this work. Finally, a prediction about the evolution of COVID-19 in 1000 days is given. For the qualitative theory of the existence of a solution, we use some tools of nonlinear analysis, including Lipschitz criteria. Also, for the numerical interpretation, we use the Adams-Moulton-Bashforth procedure. All the numerical results are presented graphically.

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Keywords

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