Open Access

ARTICLE

Assess Medical Screening and Isolation Measures Based on Numerical Method for COVID-19 Epidemic Model in Japan

by Zhongxiang Chen¹, Huijuan Zha¹, Zhiquan Shu², Juyi Ye³, Jiaji Pan^1,4,*

1 College of Engineering and Design, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, 410081, China
2 School of Engineering and Technology, University of Washington, Tacoma, 98195, USA
3 Faculty of Science, Massey University, Palmerston North, 4442, New Zealand
4 State Key Laboratory of Developmental Biology of Freshwater Fish, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, 410081, China

* Corresponding Author: Jiaji Pan. Email:

(This article belongs to the Special Issue: Mathematical Aspects of Computational Biology and Bioinformatics)

Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences 2022, 130(2), 841-854. https://doi.org/10.32604/cmes.2022.017574

Received 21 May 2021; Accepted 20 August 2021; Issue published 13 December 2021

Abstract

This study aims to improve control schemes for COVID-19 by a numerical model with estimation of parameters. We established a multi-level and multi-objective nonlinear SEIDR model to simulate the virus transmission. The early spread in Japan was adopted as a case study. The first 96 days since the infection were divided into five stages with parameters estimated. Then, we analyzed the trend of the parameter value, age structure ratio, and the defined PCR test index (standardization of the scale of PCR tests). It was discovered that the self-healing rate and confirmed rate were linear with the age structure ratio and the PCR test index using the stepwise regression method. The transmission rates were related to the age structure ratio, PCR test index, and isolation efficiency. Both isolation measures and PCR test medical screening can effectively reduce the number of infected cases based on the simulation results. However, the strategy of increasing PCR test medical screening would encountered a bottleneck effect on the virus control when the index reached 0.3. The effectiveness of the policy would decrease and the basic reproduction number reached the extreme value at 0.6. This study gave a feasible combination for isolation and PCR test by simulation. The isolation intensity could be adjusted to compensate the insufficiency of PCR test to control the pandemic.

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Keywords

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