Open Access

ARTICLE

Sensitivity Analysis of COVID-19 in Mediterranean Island

by Ahmet Savasan¹, Bilgen Kaymakamzade^1,2, Nezihal Gokbulut^1,2,*, Evren Hincal^1,2, Elcin Yoldascan³

1 Near East University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Nicosia, 99138, North Cyprus
2 Near East University, Mathematics Research Center, Nicosia, 99138, North Cyprus
3 Cyprus International University, Faculty of Medicine, Nicosia, 99138, North Cyprus

* Corresponding Author: Nezihal Gokbulut. Email:

(This article belongs to the Special Issue: Mathematical Aspects of Computational Biology and Bioinformatics)

Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences 2022, 130(1), 133-148. https://doi.org/10.32604/cmes.2022.017815

Received 15 June 2021; Accepted 06 August 2021; Issue published 29 November 2021

Abstract

The aim of this study is to examine the progress of the worldwide pandemic Covid-19. As authors, we have decided to analyze the situation of COVID-19 on Mediterranean island with accurate data. For this purpose, a mathematical model is constructed and proposed by dividing the whole population into sensible and suitable compartments. The study captures the dates February 01 till May 15, 2021. For the control of the spread of disease, vaccination and infection rates are compared and calculated. During calculations and comparison, MatLab software is used. All of the data that are used are taken from the Ministry of Health. The effect of parameters is examined with sensitivity analysis. Furthermore, with this analysis, values of parameters are obtained. Afterwards, by using the constructed model, the effect of vaccine on infected individuals is analyzed separately. As a result, it is concluded that the studied part of the island is late for the control of the disease via vaccine. This can be explained by two main reasons; vaccinating the people that are not in mobility most of the time (aged people and people with chronic diseases) and getting the vaccine late. Hence, the results showed that this rate and distribution of vaccines would not be enough to control the pandemic on the island.

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