Open Access

ARTICLE

Dynamical Transmission of Coronavirus Model with Analysis and Simulation

Muhammad Farman¹, Ali Akgül^2,*, Aqeel Ahmad¹, Dumitru Baleanu^3,4,5, Muhammad Umer Saleem⁶

1 Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Lahore, Lahore, 54590, Pakistan
2 Faculty of Art and Science, Department of Mathematics, Siirt University, Siirt, 56100, Turkey
3 Department of Mathematics, Cankaya University, Ankara, 06530, Turkey
4 Institute of Space Sciences, Magurele, R76900, Romania
5 Department of Medical Research, China Medical University, Taichung, 40402, Taiwan
6 Department of Mathematics, University of Education, Lahore, 54770, Pakistan

* Corresponding Author: Ali Akgül. Email:

(This article belongs to the Special Issue: Mathematical Aspects of Computational Biology and Bioinformatics)

Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences 2021, 127(2), 753-769. https://doi.org/10.32604/cmes.2021.014882

Received 05 November 2020; Accepted 04 February 2021; Issue published 19 April 2021

Abstract

COVID-19 acts as a serious challenge to the whole world. Epidemiological data of COVID-19 is collected through media and web sources to analyze and investigate a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equation to understand the outbreaks of this epidemic disease. We analyze the diseases free and endemic equilibrium point including stability of the model. The certain threshold value of the basic reproduction number R₀ is found to observe whether population is in disease free state or endemic state. Moreover, the epidemic peak has been obtained and we expect a considerable number of cases. Finally, some numerical results are presented which show the effect of parameters estimation and different step size on our obtained solutions at the real data of some countries to check the actual behavior of the COVID-19 at different countries.

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Citations