Open Access

ARTICLE

SEIHCRD Model for COVID-19 Spread Scenarios, Disease Predictions and Estimates the Basic Reproduction Number, Case Fatality Rate, Hospital, and ICU Beds Requirement

by Avaneesh Singh, Manish Kumar Bajpai

PDPM Indian Institute of Information Technology, Design and Manufacturing, Jabalpur, 482005, India

* Corresponding Author: Avaneesh Singh. Email:

(This article belongs to the Special Issue: Computer Modelling of Transmission, Spread, Control and Diagnosis of COVID-19)

Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences 2020, 125(3), 991-1031. https://doi.org/10.32604/cmes.2020.012503

Received 02 July 2020; Accepted 26 October 2020; Issue published 15 December 2020

Abstract

We have proposed a new mathematical method, the SEIHCRD model, which has an excellent potential to predict the incidence of COVID-19 diseases. Our proposed SEIHCRD model is an extension of the SEIR model. Three-compartments have added death, hospitalized, and critical, which improves the basic understanding of disease spread and results. We have studied COVID-19 cases of six countries, where the impact of this disease in the highest are Brazil, India, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States. After estimating model parameters based on available clinical data, the model will propagate and forecast dynamic evolution. The model calculates the Basic reproduction number over time using logistic regression and the Case fatality rate based on the selected countries’ age-category scenario. The model calculates two types of Case fatality rate one is CFR daily, and the other is total CFR. The proposed model estimates the approximate time when the disease is at its peak and the approximate time when death cases rarely occur and calculate how much hospital beds and ICU beds will be needed in the peak days of infection. The SEIHCRD model outperforms the classic ARX model and the ARIMA model. RMSE, MAPE, and R squared matrices are used to evaluate results and are graphically represented using Taylor and Target diagrams. The result shows RMSE has improved by 56%–74%, and MAPE has a 53%–89% improvement in prediction accuracy.

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