A Framework for Comprehensive Impact Assessment in the Case of an ExtremeWinter Scenario, Considering Integrative Aspects of Systemic Vulnerability and Resilience
Riitta Molarius, Pekka Tuomaala, Kalevi Piira1, Minna Räikkönen, Christoph Aubrecht, Maria Polese, Giulio Zuccaro, Karoliina Pilli-Sihvola and Kalev Rannat

Source CMES: Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences, Vol. 109, No. 2, pp. 131-158, 2015
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Keywords Crisis modelling, extreme winter, CRISMA, vulnerability.

In northern regions, society can be seriously interrupted by a prolonged electricity network blackout due to a winter storm that cuts off power, communication and road networks. Due to hard winter weather it is essential to enhance the resilience of society to avoid danger to life. This can be achieved by developing new models to enhance preparedness for coming disaster events and to support rescue and other authorities to focus their resources on the most vulnerable targets in actual cases of emergencies. This paper presents a part of the results of activities performed within the EU project ‘CRISMA – Modelling crisis management for improved action and preparedness’. It focuses on improved resilience by proposing a framework for systemic vulnerability and impact analyses. The described work is conceptually based on risk-hazard and socio-constructive approaches. It is illustrated by means of a scenario consisting of a prolonged blackout together with an extreme winter storm in northern Finland. Scenario components include the integrative analysis of rapidly cooling houses and exposed vulnerable people as well as estimations of the potential costs of the crisis situation. The model can be extended to handle passable routes and the deployment of available rescue and snow ploughing equipment.

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