Vol.65, No.1, 2020, pp.225-241, doi:10.32604/cmc.2020.011534
OPEN ACCESS
ARTICLE
Dynamical Behavior and Sensitivity Analysis of a Delayed Coronavirus Epidemic Model
• Muhammad Naveed1, *, Dumitru Baleanu2, 3, 4, Muhammad Rafiq5, Ali Raza6, Atif Hassan Soori1, Nauman Ahmed7
1 Department of Mathematics, Air University, Islamabad, Pakistan.
2 Department of Mathematics, Cankaya University, Ankara, 06530, Turkey.
3 Department of Medical Research, China Medical University Hospital, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan.
4 Institute of Space Sciences, Magurele-Bucharest, Romania.
5 Faculty of Engineering, University of Central Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan.
6 Department of Mathematics, National College of Business Administration and Economics, Lahore, Pakistan.
7 Department of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Lahore, Lahore, Pakistan.
* Corresponding Author: Muhammad Naveed. Email: 171437@students.au.edu.pk.
Received 13 May 2020; Accepted 13 June 2020; Issue published 23 July 2020
Abstract
Mathematical delay modelling has a significant role in the different disciplines such as behavioural, social, physical, biological engineering, and bio-mathematical sciences. The present work describes mathematical formulation for the transmission mechanism of a novel coronavirus (COVID-19). Due to the unavailability of vaccines for the coronavirus worldwide, delay factors such as social distance, quarantine, travel restrictions, extended holidays, hospitalization, and isolation have contributed to controlling the coronavirus epidemic. We have analysed the reproduction number and its sensitivity to parameters. If,
Keywords
Coronavirus (COVID-19), delay mathematical model, reproduction number, sensitive analysis, stability analysis.